Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Drop of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A major talking point of the EPL season so far concerns the decline of goals scored in open-play scenarios and how clubs are netting more from dead-ball situations instead.
Comparing goal sources to the initial 11 matches the prior season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and penalties, leading to 13 fewer in total.
If we look at overall statistics, the number of shots teams are taking reveal a remarkable drop of 370 in open-play than this time last season.
Regardless of the notable jump in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen only two additional shots produced from these situations outside of spot-kicks, showing the efficiency sides have been at discovering methods to convert from set-pieces.
Goal Statistics Reveal an Interesting Narrative
The 301 goals recorded in the first 110 fixtures so far works out at 2.74 scores per game, which if it continued for the whole season might be the smallest for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).
However, only 196 goals coming in open-play averages out 1.78 each match and is tracking to be the lowest for since 2009-10, since 2009-10 (1.76 average).
The 2009-10 season is also the only Premier League season to experience goals scored more often from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).
What Clubs Are Most Responsible?
Regarding goals scored from open play, Wolves have seen by far the biggest decrease, scoring just four in 11 matches, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.
Excluding Wolves, the EPL's drop in open-play scoring is very much a London phenomenon, with half of the London's seven clubs netting five or more fewer goals from open-play than the previous year.
To be fair, this is primarily due to them netting lots of scores at the start of last season instead of them really struggling to score in open-play this campaign.
Meanwhile City have experienced the largest rise, with almost every one of the 23 they've scored so far coming in open play.
Set-Piece Success
Comparing newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they took the place of. Play-off winners the Black Cats have netted three extra goals in open play than the Saints did in matchday 11 on their way to demotion the previous campaign.
In terms of goals scored from set-pieces (excluding penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have seen the largest rise, with the two clubs replacing the five fewer scores that they've produced in open-play with the same number from dead-ball chances.
United have scored twice as many goals from set-plays as they did in matchday 11 last season before Ruben Amorim took charge, while Sunderland additionally prove better at netting than the similar-colored team that went down.
City seem unaware of the message about increasing scoring from set-pieces, since they've netted three fewer than last season, similar to Nottingham Forest, though this could be because of the tactical shift they're working to install.
League-Wide Trends
Six clubs – the Gunners, Chelsea, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – have been this season's leading trend-followers by netting less goals from open-play and additional from set-pieces, while City represent the unique club to go against the grain to date by doing the contrary.
It will be fascinating to see if teams carry on to depend greatly on set-plays as matches continue or if they find again their all-round creativity and begin converting more goals in open-play too.
