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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

But the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime also-rans improving together. In an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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