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China has sent its maritime law enforcement into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.