‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's homes.

As military actions on Iran hinder energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, stocks of cooking gas are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are switching to coal and wood and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

Regional Impact

In a western metro, local news say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have dwindled with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the authorities insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and spokespersons say supplies are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being reserved for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been sparked by rumors. The standard supply timeline for domestic LPG remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.